Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Editorial Content: Compare and Contrast

While Ryan has released his healthcare policy, and we will talk about that in another post, one of the more interesting things to come out the campaign recently has been two sets of poll numbers.

The first poll comes from the Star Phoenix, the full article can be found here: http://www.leaderpost.com/news/poll+Sask+leadership+race/7954869/story.html

The first, done by Praxis Analytics is what we will talk about first. Firstly, then poll suggests that few people outside of the party membership are paying attention to the race thus far; in that 55% of those surveyed were not aware of the leadership contest, and few could even name any of the four candidates.

Where it does become interesting is when we get to those aware of the race, and the way people responded.

Ryan Meili has a slight edge, polling at 33%; Trent Wotherspoon comes second with 30%; Cam Broten comes in third with 27%; and Erin Weir is a distant fourth with 10%. This is the result of all of those polled; which raises one question, since the Star Phoenix article is unclear, I am assuming that this means the grand total of those surveyed (including those who knew nothing about the race) how does that skew Ryan's total numbers?

It just strikes me as odd if those who knew nothing about the race overwhelmingly said they would support Ryan; it's a concern, since it can skew the result, but again it is mostly speculation since they don't say whether or not those people were included in those totals.

And that's why it gets interesting when you look at the numbers of those aware of the race. In that case, Trent comes in first with 33%; while Cam and Ryan tie with 29%, and Erin holds at 10%.

In another part of the poll, Cam was selected as the candidate who could hold his own the best against Brad Wall, by three percent over the others (though the totals are not mentioned.) However, some less than glowing news for Cam is that he is also the candidate that ranked the highest as the "anyone but" candidate with 32%.

The second poll can be found here: http://www.jordoncooper.com/2013/02/ndp-leadership-race-polls/

As stated, the poll is an internal poll done by Cam's campaign and looks mostly at first ballot support. What is interesting is the contrast it has to the other poll.

In this poll, Cam is leading his fellow candidates at 43%. Followed by Ryan at 32%, then Trent at 19%, and Erin at 6%. The poll also suggests that Cam has the most down-ballot support as well.

As said, these two polls are an interesting contrast. Considering they offer completely different views on the campaign at this current stage. After all, we have one poll showing Ryan in the lead and then another showing Cam in the lead. We have one poll saying Cam is the "anyone but" candidate, and another showing that he has the most down-ballot support.

I would state that the other campaigns have been polling; just the other day I received an e-mail web based poll from one of the campaigns. Whether or not they chose to put out their results remains to be seen; but what we can glean from this is something that we've had an idea of since the beginning of the race.

This is not a done deal for any candidate. And there is still very much a chance that someone could get "Romney-ed" by polling information. Jordan suggests that the convention is likely going to be a boring one; in my opinion, however, I think it might actually be a surprising one.

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