Thursday, November 15, 2012

Campaign Update: Another Month, More Numbers

Well, the financial reports for the month of October have come out and we're going to take a look at them. Stupidly, I didn't save the old PDF donor lists, so I don't think I can go through and subtract connected campaign workers and such as we did last time. A lesson for the future, perhaps.

So, let's take a look at what we can ascertain from the chicken entrails that these numbers represent.

We'll start with the big winner for the month of October, and that is Ryan Meili. Effectively, Ryan has doubled his donations from September, and the bulk of those (coming from memory) seem to be comprised of those who have donated under the $250 amount. I noted last time we talked numbers that compared to the other candidates, while Ryan raised the most once we removed those connected to campaigns, that his overall take-in was still a little underwhelming based on his profile and past infrastructure.

Well, this month's return seems to have shot that theory in the foot. Perhaps the campaign was just a little slow to start, but it seems that Ryan's behind the scenes machine is definitely still working.

That brings us to Trent Wotherspoon. Trent still has the unfortunate distinction of spending more than he's brought in, but he too has improved massively on the overall take-in front from September. He fell a bit short of doubling his first month's donations, and he inched a little deeper into the red ink this last month, but all in all he's slowly moving forward and I'd expect both his expenses to decrease and his donations to hit a balance in the near future.

But while Ryan and Trent saw their donations increase in October, Erin Weir and Cam Broten saw theirs decrease; and the decrease in Cam's donations has been quite dramatic when compared to the September.

Despite this, there is a silver lining for Team Broten. If I've done the math correctly (and we remember what happened last time, so if I'm wrong, please let me know), Cam's campaign is at least the most shrewd of the four campaigns. I say this because, again math, suggests that Cam has spent about 57% of the total donations received since September.

This is in contrast to 61% for Ryan, 80% for Erin, and (this one could be wrong) 121% for Trent.

So, now we can extrapolate a few things.

Firstly, in terms of 'monitoring momentum', it would seem that Ryan and Trent certainly seem to be in the front (at least, definitely in terms of fundraising for sure).

However, I would be quick to caution that money doesn't always equal a victory. If it did, we'd be cursing and grumbling about President Romney right about now. So, while we can see which campaigns are doing well at getting people to open their bank books; its not a for-sure guarantee as to which campaign is also getting people to commit their ballots.

Basically, in addition to this report, we'll also need to start hearing some more concrete numbers regarding support. According to the last poll, released by the Weir Campaign, Trent was a 'declared' members front runner; and I think a strong October financial showing provides a bit more proof for that.

Now that we've seen the financial numbers, we'll need to see some support numbers to truly start making any real predictions or estimates toward who is making the most head way on ballots.


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