Monday, May 2, 2011

Election Night Thoughts

Well, as it stands now most of the polls are counted and candidates are elected nation wide. As a blogger, and a responsible one at that, there comes a time when I have to take responsibility for the things I've said on this blog in the pre-election period. Clearly, some of the predictions made on this blog did not come to pass.

While responsibility can be laid on the access to information I had, polling numbers and so forth, ultimately I write the blog and any fault in it lies with me and me alone. Obviously, I'm talking about dismissing the idea of a Conservative Majority and that being the result that Canadians have ended up with.

In fairness, polling numbers suggested a lower level of support for the Conservatives, and the electoral turnout shows that the Conservatives seemed to have about 3 - 4% higher support than most of the polls were giving them.

As such, it seemed a lock to suggest that the Conservatives were going to lose seats in this election...But I suppose this just goes to suggest that polling numbers continue to be questionable in terms of actual predictions.

But, enough about my faults in the pre-election period...Let's focus on what actually happened in this election.

As predicted, the Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois imploded at the poles. Duceppe was defeated, but no one saw the defeat of Michael Ignatieff in his riding coming. Further more, no one saw that the Liberals would end up with half of the seats they were predicted to win in the polls (most polls had them in the 60s, but they ended up in the 30s).

Few thought the NDP would hit above the 100 mark, but it seems that they have pulled that off. And of course that brings us to the Conservatives, who performed better than expected and have won the majority government that they've sought for years...Though at the cost of some prominent cabinet ministers and a loss of ground in Quebec.

So, that brings us to what we can expect from a Conservative Majority...

I've speculated on the social conservative issues we'll see pushed forward by backbench MPs who will see this majority as a chance to push social issues without the full blessing of the party through private members bills.

Economically...

I'm not sure. Conservatives have claimed credit for protecting the Canadian economy...but let's not forget that it was the Liberals who established regulations and policies that helped our banks survive the recession.

Let's not forget that Harper and his top cabinet members denied that a recession was even coming, and only agreed to stimulus spending once opposition parties more or less pushed the measure or threatened a non-confidence measure against the government.

As such, if a crisis approaches Canada in the future, who knows how a Conservative majority will react.

Finally, this is my prediction for the next four years: The emphasis will be on the deficit. The Conservatives have vowed to slash it by 2014, and if they fail to do this, they will likely not get re-elected.

After all, the bulk of their campaign platform needs a balanced budget...So, if the Conservatives fail to slash the deficit (which I believe they will fail to do, given that taxing less and spending the same or more never works to cut spending) the next election will reflect that Canadians don't trust them to slash the deficit again.

Hopefully, Canadians have made the right choice in this election. I have grave misgivings, given that this government has proven itself untrustworthy, but Canadians have decided to give them a chance and we must respect that.

But hopefully, we won't regret it in the years to come...

No comments: