Tuesday, February 27, 2018

Where Did You Come From, Where Did You Go, Where Did You Come From Carbon Tax Moe?

SOURCE: CBC News: "We're All in This Together": Federal Minister Urges Sask. to Sign Climate Plan

I know, I know, I've been quiet for awhile.

Well, we'll skip any excuses or justifications of the silence or promises that we're back to regular posting, and instead just launch right into the post.

I suppose I've been giving Scott Moe the benefit of the doubt, as I'm sure many people in Saskatchewan have given his surprising defeat of Alanna Koch to win the Saskatchewan Party Leadership.

While there was certainly reasons to stop that benefit during the leadership campaign, the last few weeks have definitely finalized that no doubting benefit should be afford to Premier Moe.

With Manitoba having now signed on to the Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change (PCFCGCC...wow, that is really uncatchy. Let's just call it "The Framework" for now), Saskatchewan is now the only hold out province on the deal.

With a reported deadline of February 28th, Saskatchewan is quickly running out of time to sign onto the deal and be eligible for federal funding under The Framework.

But Moe, much like his predecessor, has buried his heels in on fighting the feds on the issue of "the carbon tax". Moe famously during the leadership campaign quoted Pierre Elliott Trudeau's "Just Watch Me" remark with regards as to how far he'd go to fight the feds on this issue. As such, Moe's opposition to signing the province onto The Framework is hardly surprising.

What is new, however, is Moe and Minister Dustin Duncan insisting that Saskatchewan is still entitled to the $62 million dollars the province could qualify for under The Framework.

That sounds like a bratty child insisting they should still get their allowance, even though they haven't done any of their chores.

To make matters worse, Federal Environment Minister Catherine McKenna has reminded the nation that in order to receiving funding from The Framework, provinces only need to sign onto the deal. Let me repeat that: In order to qualify for Saskatchewan's $62 million dollar share, Moe's Government only has to say they agree with The Framework.

They don't need to have taken any concrete action as of yet (which, spoiler, the Saskatchewan Party hasn't) nor do they need to bind themselves to the Federal course of action. Which is to say: after they agree, the Government of Saskatchewan sets the policies, as opposed to a top-down order which could come from the Federal Government and would likely be unreflective of the needs and concerns of the province.

Much like Wall, Moe has set a collision course with the federal government that will likely result in yet another one of the Saskatchewan Party's famous needless court challenges...Court challenges, by the way, that the taxpayers of Saskatchewan foot the bill for.

The fact of the matter is this is a needless conflict.

Moe, like Wall before him, could create a made in Saskatchewan plan that respects agricultural concerns and the concerns of Saskatchewan residents, while also meeting the bare minimum the federal government wants.

And that's worth repeating: Moe is literally refusing to do the bare minimum, and in doing so, is leading to a path that is going to cost Saskatchewan not just actual dollars, but also reinforce the negative stereotype that Saskatchewan is like the "Mississippi of the North". (Hint: Being Mississippi is not a good thing.)

If Moe was serious about ensuring that Saskatchewan received its fair share from The Framework, they could at least commit to the bare minimum. And as many have pointed out in the past, any form of carbon pricing could be effectively nullified as a tax increase by simply refunding the bulk if not all of the monies collected.

Moe, and his government, are continuing a fundamental dereliction of duty by refusing to do more than just have a shouting match with the federal government on this issue.

There could be concrete steps taken, that granted might not do much to actually fight climate change, but would at least give Moe and his government access to the federal funds simply by doing the bare minimum of what they needed to.

The fact that this government can't be bothered to do even the tiniest amount of work on this file suggests that the matter is either:
  • A.) Not an issue they take seriously (and I mean, we know we have climate change deniers like Brownyn Eyre in cabinet)
  • B.) The fight with the feds is pure political theatre to provide cover for when they have to enforce a carbon tax, and they can pin the blame on the feds while pocketing the money to try and pay down their deficits
It's likely a combination of A and B, as the truth often lies in the middle, but predominantly it's looking more and more like B every day.

Moe, like Wall, seems ready to put on a good political show (even wasting money to do so)in order to make sure that when (not if, WHEN) the Carbon Tax comes that the Feds take the blame for it. Unfortunately, given the casual look at the #SKPoli hashtag and comments sections in the province, it would seem Moe is likely to get away with this tactic.

Regardless of whether the Carbon Tax is the best approach to fighting climate change (there are argument for and against), we cannot deny that climate change is impacting our province and it does indeed exist. Just drive the #16 and look at the expansion of the Quill Lakes over the past seven years, and the need for water mitigation in the area, to see what I mean.

We cannot afford to sit back and do nothing on this issue. It's here, and it's already starting to impact us. To do nothing is bad, but to feign doing nothing to score political points is even worse.


To change topics for just the briefest of moments, I'd like to take one moment to discuss the NDP Leadership race which will come to a close this weekend.

After a great amount of soul searching, and flip flopping, I was finally able to make up my mind and mark my ballot last week. As is my custom, I will be keeping my decision mostly to myself (exceptions are real life friends and the like).

As such, I'd instead like to take this moment to encourage those who have yet to mark their ballots (who are voting in advance of convention) to give the matter serious thought. It's an exciting time to be a New Democrat in Saskatchewan; even if we are a few years away from the next election. There's a renewed energy in our party, and an added frustration from even the most casual political observer that the SK Party has lost their way.

We must ensure that we do not waste this opportunity in front of us, and we must ensure that we put ourselves on the strongest footing possible for the election to come. Regardless of who wins this weekend, I believe the party will do so, and we will draw together and make sure that this government is held account for their actions, and the actions of the previous government as well.

We have the means, we have the opportunity, and we all need to come together to see it through in the years ahead.

Thursday, December 7, 2017

A Sort of Eulogy

"I come to bury Caesar, not to praise him."
- Marc Antony, Julius Caesar, Act III Scene II

As I thought about what one should say about Brad Wall, on this the day of his last sitting in the legislature, I found myself repeating the line above in my head. The context of that line is markedly different than what one will find here; for Antony, it was an opening to contradict himself and indeed praise Caesar's virtues and spur on vengeance against the conspirators who slew the "ambitious" Caesar. For me, we will drop the subtext and stick simply to the words: This post will not be flattering or fawning; instead, without any hint of double meaning, I do indeed mean it when I say that the purpose of this post serves to bury Wall's legacy, not praise it or him.

While many will offer at least some positive remark to say about Wall on his way out the door, I find myself struggling to do so, and quite likely will not be able to muster any sort of glowing word. Some will say that regardless of the man, what matters is the fact that he stood in service. However; I find myself asking in retort: Service of who?

It certainly was not in service to future generations; who have received short shrift by the butchering of education funding budget after budget during Wall's tenure. 

It certainly was not in service to young adults; who saw the province's tuition freeze lifted and now live in a province with the second highest tuition fees in the country.

It certainly was not in service to households; who were taxed by stealth, with every passing SaskPower rate increase, generated predominantly by Wall's blind vision of making C02 Capture work (it didn't, it hasn't, and the Magic 8 Ball continues to serve up "All signs point to no" when asked.) Not to mention, of course, the addition of PST to many goods and services that previously had been exempted from the provincial tax.

It certainly was not in service to seniors; who were often affected by the increased cost of living in the province, and were targeted by changes to determining provincial benefits based on OAS benefits and other changes.

It certainly was not to rural people; who lost a a valuable connection to the rest of the province with the shuttering of STC.

I could go on and make the whole post nothing more than this, but I think it proves my point. To simply try and remove the man from the accomplishments, or lack thereof, is a disservice. Wall's service, based on his actions, was not to the people of Saskatchewan. As such, it is hollow to stand and pat him on the back for his "service" to the province; especially when the case seems to argue that he was more of a hindrance to the province over anything else.

Which brings us to the retort that most fall upon when struggling to find anything good about Wall's time in office: The Boom.

I say this with sincerity: A gorilla with a calculator could have managed the boom as well as Wall did. By which I mean, Wall's credit for the boom is vastly overplayed; given that the boom had started prior to his ascendancy to the Premiership. 

Any party; from Liberals to the NDP, could have managed the boom without screwing it up. Wall was simply in the office at the right time; nothing more and nothing less.

On top of that, while Wall did not bring in any policies that might have impacted the boom negatively...He didn't do much to impact it positively either. His approach was simply hands off; and that leads to us the perhaps the simplest phrase that Wall himself was fond of using, and that perfectly defines the legacy Wall leaves behind: Now is not the time.

From creating a sovereign wealth fund to an actual plan to combat climate change, Wall's mantra was "now is not the time". For every problem, Wall's response was always some version of this answer. It's the political equivalent of "letting the chips fall where they may". If things worked themselves out, then Wall could claim he was justified in doing nothing.

But more often, when things didn't work out or didn't resolve them self, Wall would double down on his mantra and dig in his heels. That stubborn, narrow-minded lack of vision is not a leadership trait that should be admired nor replicated; but sadly, it seems many in the race to replace him are keen to do just that.

Wall's last legacy is that he will likely become a case study of "what not to do" when another province finds itself in a similar boom situation; along with the ignoble honour of being yet another right-wing Premier who led this province down a disastrous path that led to economic ruin and will result in decades of us fighting to keep the wolves from the door.

Perhaps, at some future date there may be some kind words to say about Brad Wall's tenure. But to sum it up in a phrase he'd approve of: Now is not the time.

Wednesday, August 16, 2017

Who's In, Who's Out, and I Don't Know's on Third

SOURCE: CJME News - Speculation Remains Over Who Will Replace Brad Wall
SOURCE: Globe & Mail - Race to Replace Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall Gets First Entrant
SOURCE: CBC News - Who Will Replace Brad Wall as Saskatchewan Party Leader
SOURCE: CBC News - Trent Wotherspoon Announces run for Sask. NDP Leadership

Let's deal with the shorter of the two stories we'll be looking at this evening, starting with Trent Wotherspoon's announcement to run as leader for the Saskatchewan New Democrats. We talked a bit previously about Trent's likely intentions when he announced he was resigning as interim leader, so we won't focus too much on that now, but what I will say is this:

The SK Party is already turning its wheels about Trent's previous mentions not to run and saying that it casts him as untrustworthy. Here's a line I hope NDP Head Office sees, feel free to use it: I'm no less trustworthy than a Premier who asked for another 4 year mandate and is now leaving barely a year into it.

As we talked about in the previous post, situations have changed. The SK Party aren't where they are when they won on election night in 2016; nor is Trent where he was when he took over as interim leader. Re-examinations of things are fine, especially when circumstances shift such as they have between election night and now.

Granted, the SK Party has never been one to abandon attack angles when they latch onto something, so the best response now is to come up with a line (or use the one above) that can be easily thrown out whenever they start to sabre rattle on that point.

Moving along, as previously mentioned again, it seems likely that with Trent and Ryan now declared as the two official candidates that it is unlikely anyone may step forward in the race. With previous leadership campaigns under their belts, both are formidable opponents for anyone who hasn't had such experience.

There's still the possibility that someone else may step forward, but it seems unlikely at the moment that anyone else would want to invest the time and resources into a campaign where they're starting in third and hoping to play catch up as the campaign goes on. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to be proven wrong on this point (the more voices the better), but I think we're likely at the two candidates we'll have moving into the final laps of the contest.

Which brings us to the newest developments out of the Saskatchewan Party.

In a surprising move, Tina Beaudry-Mellor (current Minister of Social Services) is the first person to throw her hat into the ring to replace Brad Wall. I say surprising, because even though her name had been floated in the hours after Wall's resignation, Beaudry-Mellor is a first-term MLA elected in 2016.

It's not often to see a person with little over a year's experience in the Legislature take a run at the top job.

Now, I feel I need to draw some comparisons here; since I can already hear people going, "But Scott, Ryan Meili hasn't even been an MLA for a year yet, and he's running for his party's leadership!"

True, but there's some significant "buts" to that statement. Firstly, Meili has run for the leadership before on two occasions; giving him some experience in running a leadership campaign and all that entails.

The LARGER argument however, is that Meili is running to become Leader of the Opposition. While Beaudry-Mellor, should she win, would step immediately into the Premier's Office. That's a huge difference, and one that kind of makes the comparison between them a false equivalency.

What I can say, however, for Beaudry-Mellor is that she does have a background in political science; having been a professor at the University of Regina on the subject. And while there is an argument to be made that her knowledge in the field through academics can make up for the practical experience gained by working as an MLA, I'd feel remiss if I didn't point out the difference between practical and theoretical knowledge.

A political science professor may have a good understanding of the ins-and-outs of the legislative process and how the "sausage gets made" (as Otto von Bismarck once said), but there's a difference between knowing and doing. How the legislative process occurs in theory and in practice can be objectively different; and experience in the theory may not transfer over to the practical.

Effectively, there will be a learning curve. A few years experience as an MLA helps prepare one for this curve, and I don't think that's experience that can be replaced by a good fundamental knowledge of the theory behind it. It's the same reason why employers are asking a person who just spent 4 years getting a degree on a subject to then have 2 - 5 years of work experience applying that degree; because it won't always happen like how it was in the book.

Perhaps more hindering to Beaudry-Mellor's ambitions, however, is her close ties to the mess that was the 2016 - 2017 Budget. As Minister of Social Services, Beaudry-Mellor is directly tied to some of the decisions that were among the most lambasted: from the initial cuts to funeral services for the homeless to adjustments to the SAID program and other social assistance payouts...And that's not including the most recent move to strike OAS recipients from SAID programs.

Beaudry-Mellor's clip of "I'm a not a heartless person" is going to be played on a loop throughout her leadership run; along with a list of all the cuts that fall under her ministry's purview. If the SK Party's overall objective is to distance itself the Budget and turn the corner on a 'new Saskatchewan Party', Beaudry-Mellor's proximity to some of the most mean-spirited cuts will likely be an anchor in that process.

Let's move along then to the other potentials that have yet to rule on whether they're in or out for the race to replace Brad Wall.

The Most Likely to Run: 
  • Dustin Duncan
  • Jeremy Harrison
  • Gord Wyant
  • Ken Cheveldayoff
The Will They/Won't They:
  • Jim Reiter
  • Corey Tochor
  • Christine Tell
  • Gene Makowsky
  • Alanna Koch
  • Kevin Doherty
The Already Outs:
  • Donna Harpauer
  • Lyle Stewart
  • Don Morgan
Harbinger of the Coming Apocalypse:
  • Brad Trost (This is normally where I'd put Bill Boyd, but given his retirement announcement, it seems Mr. Trost will have to assume that mantle going forward.)
I have to admit, some of the names of these lists are more familiar than others; which makes examining each of them in detail a little difficult. So, instead, let's focus on the ones that I can actually speak the most to.

We'll start with the two "perceived" front-runners: Dustin Duncan and Jeremy Harrison.

Duncan has been floated as a potential successor to Wall for years; starting at least as early as 2010. Like most of Wall's cabinet ministers, he has some baggage going into the race: His tenure as Health Minister leaves a spotty track record and the disaster that was LEAN; and his current tenure as Minister for SaskTel has been undercut by accusations of secret meetings with telecoms lobbyists on the heels of re-defining privatization in the province.

Moving on to Jeremy Harrison, Harrison came to prominence in the legislature as something of an attack dog for the party in the wake of the budget. Harrison served as the chief voice of indignation whenever the NDP refused to rubber-stamp cost cutting measures; quite often misrepresenting the truth (claiming the NDP opposed the 3.5% MLA paycut [they didn't]) among other untruths. Harrison suffered from a "math is hard" moment, covered well by Tammy Roberts, by claiming that Cabinet members were taking a 49% greater pay cut than regular members.

Both men would enter the race with a tremendous amount of baggage, much like the problems faced by Beaudry-Mellor.

On the flip side of this stands Gord Wyant.

For the most part, Wyant has been a pretty competent Justice Minister. He's managed to mostly avoid rocking the boat, or bungling his file; but Wyant's baggage, like perhaps many others in the current cabinet, is unanswered questions from the GTH land deal. Despite an attempt to paint himself as something of a "White Knight" and being the voice of reason that stopped a questionable deal, the inconsistencies in Wyant's account compared to the Provincial Auditor's remain unanswered. With recent troubles for Bill Boyd, stemming from a trip to China, and continued questions about his role in the GTH, it's quite likely that the entire GTH Affair has the potential to kneecap a lot of political careers for those who seek to run again. Wyant could very well be one of them.

That brings us finally to Ken Cheveldayoff.

Cheveldayoff has worn quite a few hats in his tenure while the Saskatchewan Party has been in government; so much so, that it's quite frankly hard to keep track of a lot of the stuff that he's been involved in. Most complaints that I've heard regarding Cheveldayoff stem more from the personal, than the professional: In that he's perceived as a fellow with a bit of an ego, and someone that you will either get along with or dislike, with no middle of the road option. Add to this the perpetual rumours that this prickly personality is what led to Cheveldayoff's time away from the limelight of Cabinet, and it paints some questions as to Cheveldayoff's ability to connect with the average Saskatchewan voter.

One of the general "traits" people admired about Brad Wall, true or not, was the persona he affected of being humble; the "aw shucks" routine, I call it. Wall was credited with being able to work a room and come off as if he was no one special compared to everyone else there. Rumours of Cheveldayoff's temperament would suggest this would be something that would not continue should he become leader, and could very well spell problems for those who like their leader folksy with a side of self-deprecating.

The only two in the "Will they/Won't They" pile I want to make specific reference to are Gene Makowsky and Kevin Doherty.

I've been including Makowsky on my list of potential runners simply due to the Saskatchewan Party's almost cult-like reverence of the Saskatchewan Roughriders. I'm sure there's more than a few people who would see the opportunity to see a former team member become the party leader as a tantalizing ideal that would cause every 'green blooded Riders' fan' to fall in line behind them in a general election.

It's a silly notion, but it's one I'm sure someone has put forward somewhere. As such, I think it's worth mentioning.

More seriously, is Kevin Doherty. Given that there's a long tradition of Finance Ministers replacing outgoing party leaders, Doherty seems like a natural choice for one of the front-runners of the race. However, he carries the most baggage regarding the budget.

Doherty's tone-deafness with the mood of the province, plus the flip-flops on some issues due to public and cabinet pressure after the presentation of the budget, undercut Doherty's ability to be an effective leader within cabinet. Furthermore, his inability to admit any actual fault is something that he would wear in any future leadership race.

As mentioned before on the blog, Doherty has most recently taken to blaming "Experts from Toronto" for the price of oil in the most recent budget. Someone should tell Mr. Doherty that when you solicit advice, it's up to you whether or not you listen to it; as such, the final decision and the responsibility is yours. Pointing the finger at some bad advice, which by the way Doherty hasn't said any names OR how much the province paid for him to meet with them or to them for consultancy fees, doesn't pass the blame: It just makes him look petulant and irresponsible.

Finally, the last person I want to talk about (which is a sentence true in a number of ways) is Brad Trost.

Coming off the heady high of finishing fourth in the Federal Conservative Leadership Race, which was well above what most people thought he would do, Trost has recently mused that he is considering running for Wall's position.

While Trost winning the position would likely lead to a massive Saskatchewan Party exodus of voters in 2020, as moderates/centrists/liberals abandon ship en masse, the damage Trost could do in just three short years shouldn't be underplayed.

It seems unlikely that Trost will actually enter the race; after all, there's a steep $13,000 pay cut going from an MP to Premier, which might be just enough to keep him away from the race altogether. But it is indeed possible that he is angling himself to try and play something of a "kingmaker" role; in rallying social conservatives, as he did on the federal level, to support one candidate over another.

Worthy of note, however, would be the perplexing scenario if Trost ran and won the leadership. Convention would state that Trost would immediately be Premier of Saskatchewan, regardless of not holding a seat in the Provincial Legislature. Furthermore, current guidelines both provincially and federally, only prohibit a person from becoming a Member if they are a Member of the Other.

What that means: If Trost won, he could in theory, remain as an MP so long as he didn't officially seek a seat in the provincial legislature. He would have to resign in order to seek a provincial seat, but before doing so he could technically hold both titles.

At issue here is remuneration for the Premier; as the Premier is provided roughly $46,000 on top of their MLA salary. It is unclear whether this payment would be made to a Premier who is not a member of the legislature; and it opens a whole can of worms regarding that whole pay process. As interesting as it would be to get clarification to such issues, or force legislation on them going forward, it wouldn't be worth the cost of having Brad Trost as Premier.

Effectively, as the days go by, I imagine we'll have a clearer picture of who can be added and struck from the list of replace Brad Wall. But what is initially clear as of this moment, is that no one is entering this race without some form of baggage from the Brad Wall years.

And Saskatchewan Party members are going to have to weigh that baggage against the goal of being re-elected in 2020. Right now, as it stands, it seems like no one is offering them the path to that goal; in fact, most of those floated seem likely to keep the party on the downward trend, and are likely running to become Leader of the Ashes once the 2020 results are read out on Election Night. 

Thursday, August 10, 2017

Regarding Brad Wall

As I drove back from Saskatoon this past weekend, I noticed something. Just outside of the grain terminal near Allan, an old stalwart had disappeared from the side of the road. I speak, of course, about the Saskatchewan Party Billboard that proudly proclaims “Keeping Saskatchewan Strong” and features a smiling Brad Wall in the one corner.

At first, I couldn’t help but notice how odd it was that the billboard was gone; replaced instead by nothing but an empty white spot waiting a new ad. That particular location had always been home to a Saskatchewan Party advertising for at least the last few years; running Donna Harpauer elections ads early in 2016, but otherwise always had Brad’s visage upon it.

My mind mused, jokingly, that perhaps this was a sign of Wall’s impending resignation. Then my mind started to trail a little more, slowly realizing that I hadn’t seen ANY of those billboards anywhere within the past few weeks, if not months. Again, I figured that I was rushing to conclusions and that it was more likely that a “new advertising” style was coming. After all, given the budgetary outlook in Saskatchewan these days, a campaign touting “Saskatchewan Strong” wasn’t entirely accurate.

I thought nothing more about it on the rest of the drive home, and indeed didn’t think about it at all until I heard that Brad Wall was making an announcement at 10:00am this morning. While my mind raced to “Oh, so he is resigning”; I still didn’t fully believe that that would be the case. Perhaps he’s found a buyer for SaskTel and is about to smooth the case over with the population…Or maybe there’s a big announcement with regards to the budget or the “on track by 2019” expectation.

If anything, I’ve learned that perhaps I should learn to trust my instincts a little more after Wall’s official resignation was announced.

Wall’s announcement is not at all surprising; he faces an unprecedented situation in his current tenure as Premier. Wall’s personal popularity is shrinking, still ahead of others but noticeably dipping, while his party’s fortunes are facing the same free-fall in the polls. Indeed, Wall has experienced notable resistance in the face of his recent budget: with protestors out en masse at regular events that didn’t see such things occur in previous years. Like it or not, the budget appears to have awoken many people in Saskatchewan; and that doesn’t seem to be good news for governing party.

One can't help but think of the scenes of protestors outside of MLA offices in response to the now-reversed cuts to library funding within the province; or the other turn-outs that occurred at bus depots and Premier's Dinners. Prior to this budget, this level of anger and discontent from citizens towards the Party of Brad Wall was unheard of. While there were always some grumbling discontents, I know I was one, the majority were happy enough to sit back so long as "such and such" happened and "such and such" didn't.

Speaking of, Saskatchewan’s budget continues to be a thorn in the governing party’s side as the finance minister is now pointing fingers at “experts” in Toronto for being wrong about an oil recovery and casting further doubt on the province’s numbers and the pledge to balance the books by 2019. The government has also continued to flip-flop on various issues brought forward by the budget, and have announced some newer equally harsh cuts; such as last week’s announcement that OAS recipients will be struck from SAID eligibility to the announcement the government is looking to unload some of their low-income rental properties

And so, “Canada’s most popular premier” has found himself in a very unpopular position. As things continue to get worse, and unfortunately it looks like things are heading in that direction, it’s no doubt clear to Wall that all the vows of balance and financial prudence cannot be achieved on his watch. I suppose, in terms of legacy, it’s better to go out as the man who started the fire rather than the one who failed to contain and put it out.

Ultimately, I do not believe that history will look favourably on Brad Wall.

While the recent past allows some rose-coloured glasses for those who wish to look upon him that way; the long memory of history will ultimately underscore what many of us already knew about Brad Wall: He was a flash in the pan, exciting and new for some at first, but ultimately a novelty that achieved little and managed to set the house on fire in its short time.

We've talked before about questionable economic decisions made by the SK Party under Wall's tenure; from billions wasted on CO2 capture to the Regina Bypass to problems at the GTH, so I don't think we need to rehash that. But on all financial levels, Wall's tenure was a disaster by all accounts. The simple fact alone that Saskatchewan managed to save NOTHING, zip, zero, nada with regards to non-renewable resource revenue should highlight that fact.

And 2016 promises about the creation of such a legacy fund when oil tops $55 a barrel again are increasingly laughable as even the finance minister seems willing to concede that such highs are unlikely in the near future...In fact, even industry members suggest that oil is likely to remain around $45 for the near future, if not drop lower.

But let us also remember those boondoggles mentioned above; if only because they need to be mentioned lest anyone think our woes are based solely on resource revenues dropping. Rather, it is indeed a combination of resource revenue decreased income with poor financial management and investment by the government.

Wall's spending projects and decisions are not exempt from how Saskatchewan got to where we are, and it is important to keep that in mind.

Wall leaves office with a budgetary deficit that has tripled since it was first reported, an unlikely to be sufficient timeline for 'returning to balance', and a growing amount of debt thanks to said deficits, increased borrowing, and raiding/back-loading of debt from and onto Crown Corporations. Unfortunately, we may not know just how bad things really are until the SK Party are tossed from office and a new government has a chance to look at the books.

So, if Wall can't rest on his economic laurels (nor should he), what is left of his "legacy"?

Effectively, not much. Wall might have escaped mostly unscathed and able to shrug most of the negatives he now wears had he resigned prior to the 2016 Election; as he would have left at the height of his popularity and not worn a negative budget that has caused increasing pressure and discontent within the province.

For now, Wall's legacy will be viewed in the short term; but with time and knowledge, I do not doubt that he will likely go down as reviled as his mentor in the political encyclopedia of Saskatchewan. It doesn't help, either, that the last days of the Brad Wall premiership were marked by cuts that many saw as overhanded, petty, and vindictive. 

Wall's forward failure for financial planning plunges the province to unsteady ground moving forward. We've already seen two reductions to our Credit Rating, and it seems increasingly likely that Saskatchewan is moving towards the days of being a Have-Not province in the federal equalization system again.

While Wall may receive some credit for stepping down and giving a successor time to build and move forward, he will also rightly take some flak for "cutting and running" before the job was finished. Like it or not, a part of the SK Party's popularity and electability was Brad Wall. Wall saying before the election that the province was in better shape than most thought and that his party could manage if re-elected believed that promise on the basis of a belief in Brad Wall.

Wall's decision to throw in the towel, instead of seeing things through to the end, undercut a lot of his messaging from throughout the years. In the end, Brad Wall has left Saskatchewan in a weaker position than when he found it; and the promise of keeping Saskatchewan strong turned out to be nothing more than smoke and mirrors.

Wall will wear that, in time, doubly so if his successor fails to stem the economic bleeding in the province...and the anger towards the final budget brought in by Wall will only continue if his successor continues a vast array of cuts. And while Wall may be struggling for some grasp at a legacy, given how so much of his reputation has been burned away in this final term, it may quite simply be this: He wasn't the worst Premier we've ever had, but he came close.

Wednesday, June 14, 2017


Source: CJME News: Saskatchewan Health Authority Board Members Named

What's this? Two blog posts in a row? While you try to get over the shock of such rapid posting, allow me to fill you into the somewhat cryptic number you find in the title of the post.

Earlier today, the Saskatchewan Government announced the board members for the soon to be amalgamated Health Region of Saskatchewan (name pending). The ten person list encompassed as the minister says:

"...a range of professional backgrounds, including governance, accounting, medicine, law, education and business." - Health Minister Jim Reiter.

But, a range of background and a future working together is not the only thing many of the new board members have in common. A little over half, that's 6 people for you playing the home game, have made contributions to the Saskatchewan Party over the last ten years.

If you don't believe me, feel free to head on over to the Elections Saskatchewan Website and check out the financial returns that parties are required to file. The returns go as far back as 2006, with a PDF file for each party. Sadly, the PDFs are non-searchable; meaning you can't just type in a name and see if it pops up...So, for the last few hours, I've been combing through eleven year's worth of financial returns.

As such, it's entirely possibly my tired eyes missed a name or two as I scoured through the list. Also, worth noting, is that these lists really only list "bigger" donors. If a person didn't contribute more than $250 in a fiscal year, their name won't appear in the return. This is also true for cash donations of under $20 made in person; which, as far as I know, are still allowed to be made without any need for paperwork on the party's side.

So, all of this information is what I consider to be the "searchable" donations. There's also the spouse and children factor. In the case of one board member, I was able to identify their spouse's name and as such, have included their donations in this total. Before you cry foul, let me explain: There are years in the records where both contributed separate amounts under $1,000; and then are years where only the spouse contributed an amount over $1,000. As such, in my opinion, it seems likely that those years the contribution was made just under one name, and I feel justified in including it in my tally.

The reason I am including these "exceptions and rules", is because it's worth keeping that in mind when we have a board member who's name doesn't appear on financial returns. Just because they don't appear, doesn't mean they didn't make a donation to the Saskatchewan Party...It may just have been a small enough donation not to end up in the report. Of note, the inverse can also be true; they may not have actually donated.

Since I can't say beyond a shadow of doubt that they did or didn't, it neither condemns nor exonerates them.

Now, let's get to the meat and potatoes of it; the following newly announced board members have made at least one contribution to the Saskatchewan Party since 2006:
  • R.W. (Dick) Carter, Chairperson
  • Grant Kook, Vice-Chair
  • Brenda Abrametz (and spouse)
  • Robert Pletch
  • Donald Rae
  • Tom Zurowski
These six people, since 2006, have contributed $21,932.61 to the Saskatchewan Party; hence the title of this post. Again, this is for the donations that can actually be tracked through the financial return. This can't account for smaller donations, especially smaller cash donations made in person at campaign or constituency events; nor does it account for contributions from spouses or children whom I could not link directly to the indicated board member. I mention this specifically, as a person who may be Mr. Carter's spouse appears in every return from 2017 - 2006, and would significantly increase the amount donated from the Carter family to the Sask Party over this time period. But, given that I cannot 100% confirm that spousal status, I'm leaving it out of our totals for now.

Of particular note, it is worth noting that nearly half (48%) of the total amount of monies donated by these 6 board members comes from a SINGLE person: Robert Pletch, who since 2006, has donated a whopping $10,447.10 to the Saskatchewan Party.

With no exception, each of the 6 board members listed have above have donated over $1,000 to the Saskatchewan Party since 2006.

The fact of the matter is: There are already a number of growing concerns over the switch to moving to a single health region; especially when considering the pratfalls that other areas of Canada have experienced while making such a move.

The Saskatchewan Government had to, let me emphasize that, HAD TO ensure that this process was undertaken in such a manner that the groundwork had to be beyond reproach. The first way of doing that: an act of good faith by not stacking the health board with Party Toadies. Instead, what we've gotten, is the complete opposite.

Even if the remaining unaccounted for 4 boards have never made a contribution to the Saskatchewan Party, as the financial records could suggest, their voices would still be easily drowned out by the 6 members who have provided over $20,000 in donations over 11 years.

By not even being able to start the process in good faith, Reiter and Wall have effectively started this process by poisoning the well. While the board members may have sterling reputations, and a few even have health board experience in the existing boards, this is completely undercut by the fact that the majority of them have ties to the sitting the government.

One act of good faith was all that was needed to suggest that the Wall Government wasn't going to make this process political or open to pratfalls...He couldn't even provide that.

Tuesday, June 13, 2017

The Latest on Leadership

SOURCE: CBC News: Trent Wotherspoon Resigning as NDP Interim Leader, Considering Run for Permanent Party Leadership

Given that we took a moment to discuss Ryan Meili's entry into the Saskatchewan NDP Leadership Race, it seems only right that we take a moment to consider Trent Wotherspoon's precursor to potentially entering the race himself.

I'll admit, I was surprised this afternoon when I saw the headlines that Trent was stepping down as interim leader and would be considering entering the race to become the next full-time leader of the Saskatchewan NDP. Given his previous answers on ruling out a leadership run, it seemed like mostly a done deal that Trent was happy to serve in a short-time capacity for the party.

However, one can hardly blame Trent for stepping back to fully consider his options. After all, the NDP is in a very different place at the moment. For the first time in a long time, at least the first time since forming government in 2007, the NDP is polling ahead of the ruling Saskatchewan Party with voters. Wall's seemingly invincible armour has been chipped, if not cracked, and Wall's own political future is in question.

Those sorts of shifts alone warrant a re-examination of decisions made prior to such events occurring. So, while I'm sure there may be some who are apprehensive about Trent potentially reversing course, I'd say the thought is entirely justified.

Which brings the next point: There has been a considerable amount of grassroot support for Trent to take a stab at the full-time leadership; from the standard "Draft Trent Wotherspoon" mumblings on various social media sites to just general statements from rank and file members discussing the leadership. Given Wall and the SK Party's shift, and own pressures from within the party to consider running, it's not surprising that Trent is taking the thought seriously.

At this point, at least in my opinion, it seems unlikely that Trent won't enter the race, which means at the very least we will see a contest between Meili and Wotherspoon. As mentioned in my previous post, this is good for the party on the long term. Meili and Wotherspoon are arguably the two "heaviest hitters" that could have entered the race; so, at the very least, it will ensure that we have that conversation leadership race I talked about as opposed to a coronation.

Again, to draw on the last post, I would say that the next leader needs to be ready to lead a province that might be weaker than expected. So, while it will be nice to have a conversation about what kinds of new social programs or spending can be expected under an NDP Government in 2020; I certainly hope there is lots of consideration given to the "darker" timeline option of finding ourselves in a repeat of 1993, post-Wall.

Now, as we fleshed out a few areas where Meili is like to take some shots from the Saskatchewan Party, we should likely consider what Trent needs to be prepared for should he end up winning the leadership.

The easiest target is previous leadership associations; much like Wall has tried to smear Meili with the Carbon Tax, I would expect the SK Party to look back to "Aboriginal Resource Revenue Sharing" pitched by the NDP in 2011.  That attack was a popular favourite against both Lingenfelter and Broten; and it wouldn't surprise me to see it dusted off again should Trent become leader.

I would imagine it would have the new spin of "Resource revenues are down, so why would we split what little we are getting now"; as such, this should be a question that Trent and his team are able to answer, even if there is no plan to bring back Resource Revenue Sharing as a policy for 2020.

The other angle, which Trent and team need to consider, is what happens if Wall does indeed resign prior to 2020.

Regardless of whether a long-time SK Party Cabinet Member takes over or some wild-card emerges, I imagine there will be the continued messaging of Trent being part of the 'old guard NDP' and how a province under his leadership would be a "step back" for the province. Now, I have no doubt that policies brought forth during the leadership race will help combat this talking point, but I pause because I imagine that this will be an issue that is also brought up during the leadership race.

While we're likely to see the "violent agreement" that often exists in NDP Leadership races at all levels, I imagine that Trent will take some flak for being a longer serving caucus member. While he can easily spin this into highlighting experience in the legislature, there is the very real potential that we will see another "Old Guard/New Wave" problem that has permeated the last few leadership races. And it would be a disservice to the past to not learn from previous aftermaths, and Trent and any other candidate not named Ryan Meili needs to be prepared to address how they will foster party unity.

While I think it's unfair to consider Trent "Old Guard" simply because he's had a few terms in the legislature, I do believe that it will be brought up in that manner that makes it sound like it's a bad thing. The goal, however, is to make sure that we as a party are able to make sure that this division does not inflict a wound during the leadership contest; a wound that will eventually fester and become infected during a general election, and that will present an easy target for the SK Party to hone in on.

Not that my call to action means much, but I would certainly encourage our leadership candidates to abandon the whole "Old Guard/New Wave" mentality; it does us all no good when we foster an Us/Them mentality within our own party. Regardless of what happens in the leadership race, we should be fostering an inclusive community where progressive people of the province feel at home and valued. Failure to do so will only ensure more ammunition for the SK Party during the next general election, and our goal should be to deny them any kind of "advantage" we can.

With Trent likely to enter the race, and Meili already confirmed to be in it, I think the pool of potential contenders continues to narrow. I don't know whether or not any one else out there is considering weighing into a race that now has the two perceived front runners involved; but of course, I could always be wrong and someone else may very well step forward. If someone does, I'll update accordingly and hopefully be able to provide some early insight.

In closing this post, I would like to again impress the importance to ensuring that whatever the outcome of this race that we ensure the NDP is ready to govern for 2020. While it's still a long way away, and poll numbers can change, the party needs to be ready. And we need to be sure that we're prepared to be surprised, for good or for ill, with what state of finances we are given.

Thursday, May 18, 2017

On Leadership and Definitions

SOURCE: CBC News: Ryan Meili Seeks NDP Leadership for 3rd Time

By this point in time, most of you have likely heard the news that Ryan Meili has announced his intention to seek the leadership of the Saskatchewan NDP for the third time. Meili, who has had two strong second place finishes in prior leadership contests, is thus far the only announced candidate in the leadership contest; and arguably, regardless of who may come next, likely considered to be the frontrunner.

With Ryan thus far being the only announced candidate, I suppose we'll be spending the rest of this post looking at some things that I hope Ryan and his team have already begun to work on. After all, there's more at stake here than just the NDP Leadership.

I'd like to preface this post, before we launch into the main arguments and discussion, that this post may come across perhaps as prodding on my end. It may very well be, but hopefully, it's a good kind of prodding that will help ensure that the party comes out stronger on the other side of this leadership contest.

Let's start with the obvious point: The Sask Party is very much prepared for the Meili-led NDP. Brad Wall has, on several occasions, referred to Meili (since his election in Saskatoon-Meewasin) as "the future leader of the NDP" or some variation thereof; so we need to ask ourselves what exactly that means for the first few days of a Meili led NDP.

One of the things that has ham-stringed the last few provincial NDP leaders was a failure to define themselves out of the gate; by leaving such an opening, Wall and the Sask Party were able to define the new leaders and set the tone and tenor of their tenure. And regardless of what developments came later, both Lingenfelter and Broten suffered from these initial perceptions perpetuated by the Sask Party and Wall and his front bench.

Since his first run against Dwain Lingenfelter, Ryan Meili has likely been a "person of interest" for Saskatchewan Party partisans. They have had years to craft what messaging they can, or would, use in the event Ryan became party leader. As such, it's very likely that from the first second after a Meili win, the Sask Party would be ready to launch every salvo they have stored from those years to do what they did to Lingenfelter and Broten so well: Define him before he defines himself.

As such, Meili and his team need to be ready for this. Wall's chattering of acknowledging Meili as the front-runner in the NDP race more or less shows that they will be ready from day one to start their campaign against him. With that in mind, Team Meili needs to ensure that they're laying groundwork not just to win the NDP Leadership, but also getting ready from Day One to ensure that they are the ones who define Ryan to Saskatchewan voters.

There will be precious little time after a Meili win to achieve this, so I do certainly hope that it is something that is being discussed within his organizational structure.

That's not to say that this same kind of tactic would not be employed against a 'dark horse' candidate who pulls out a surprise win over Meili; as the Sask Party is likely to continue on this path as it's worked well at kneecapping two previous leaders. But for Meili, having been in the public eye longer, the Sask Party will certainly be more ready for him.

We certainly saw a taste of this during the Meewasin by-election, wherein the Sask Party ran ads tying Ryan to Trudeau's Carbon Tax. While it seems like that argument landed with a thud, given Ryan's victory in Meewasin, it's likely just the tip of the iceberg on potential "definition" campaigns they could run.

Again, I point all of this out in the hopes of acknowledging that should Ryan end up winning the leadership next May, he and his team must be ready for this. The campaign to come isn't just about securing the NDP Leadership, but also about securing Ryan's public image to ensure that it is defined by him and his actions, and not by political tactics of the Sask Party.

Which brings us to the next point, the need for this leadership race to be a conversation and not a coronation.

Ryan's entry into the race is likely to scare off some of the 'smaller fish' candidates who were perhaps entertaining a leadership run. The problem here, in my opinion, is that the party is in such a place at the moment that a singular leadership race poses many problems.

While the party could maintain that it's the membership uniting behind Ryan, and seeing his vision as the best for the province; we come back to opposition definition. If Ryan is the only candidate, the Sask Party will undoubtedly use that as an attack in several ways. From arguing that the party is in such dire straights it could only find one person wanting to lead it to painting the party as being completely taken over by so-and-so wing of the party.

Again, definition is important; and a healthy leadership competition is a part of that definition. As such, it's important to ensure that many voices are active and engaged during the leadership race. Anything else than that is ceding ground to the Sask Party attack ad machine; and that's a dangerous ground to cede.

Which brings me to the next point: Regardless of whether it's Ryan, or someone else, the next leader has to be ready to deal with two realities.

The first reality is the one where the NDP is elected in 2020, and the leader is able to begin to implement the policies and vision that they were elected on.

The second reality is the one where the NDP is elected in 2020, and we find ourselves in a repeat of the early 1990s: The cupboards barer than the previous government admitted to, and the newly elected government stymied into the role of a caretaker rather than a visionary.

As much as it may be pessimistic, we need to have an open and frank discussion of what happens in 2020 if the party finds itself in power and the financial burden of the province in a much darker hole than Wall and his outgoing cabinet revealed. Call it the difference between political idealism and practical realism; we need to have a platform that reflects lofty goals, but we also need to have a dose of realism on what the party, and the leader, will do if we find Saskatchewan in more dire straights than we think.

The Sask Party has made a living off of citing all the "Closures" and "deferred building" under the NDP of the 1990s; ignoring the reasons why that all occurred...And we need to ensure that any future leaders of the NDP are not caught in the same trap again.

It's not fun to perhaps have to consider what happens if you're elected and have to keep the province's head above water, rather than enacting your pet policies; but again, if we want to avoid opposition definition years down the line, we need to be prepared for both scenarios.

And again, hopefully Ryan and his team (and all potential leadership candidates and their teams), have reflected on this possibility and are able to address what the party and the province would look like in this scenario with them in control. Otherwise, we are likely to see the same arguments Wall uses today return in ten to fifteen year's time as the new reason to shun the NDP.

Effectively, as much as this leadership race will be about laying out a new vision for the party and the province, it must also be a race to acknowledge difficult truths and possibilities of what the next government might have to deal with. And I hope that that is something that has been deeply pondered by every candidate considering running.